Gary Black Says Tesla's $25 Billion Spend Not A Surprise, Expects TSLA Valuation To Come Down Amid Self-Driving Roll Back
Gary Black Says Tesla's $25 Billion Spend Not A Surprise, Expects TSLA Valuation To Come Down Amid Self-Driving Roll Back
Badar ShaikhFri, April 24, 2026 at 2:31 AM UTC
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Investor Gary Black of The Future Fund LLC has said he expects Tesla Inc.‘s value to decline in the coming days, following a slowdown in its self-driving progress.
Tesla To Decline In Value?
In a post on the social media platform X on Wednesday, the investor said he expects full-year 2026 earnings projections for Tesla to be raised to approximately $2.00 per share from earlier projections of $1.90 per share.
However, Black said that Tesla’s valuation could take a hit, sharing that the automaker’s “2026 P/E to come down from its current 204x,” as investors in the company “adapt to TSLA management backpedaling on timing of unsupervised FSD and Robotaxi,” which would not be rolled out until late 2026 or even next year, the investor said.
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The investor also said that Tesla’s forecasted Capital Expenditure of $25 billion “should not be a surprise” as the EV giant invests in AI, as well as its self-driving efforts. During Tesla’s earlier earnings call in the fourth quarter of 2025, the company had said that CapEx spending could exceed $20 billion.
4/ Putting today's results and conference call into investment community vernacular, I expect TSLA 2026 earnings estimates to increase to ~$2.00 (from $1.90) but the 2026 P/E to come down from its current 204x as investors adapt to TSLA management backpedaling on timing of… pic.twitter.com/aBbeFIwxTb
— Gary Black (@garyblack00) April 22, 2026
Ross Gerber Slams Tesla’s HW3 Admission
Meanwhile, investor Ross Gerber of Gerber Kawasaki criticized Tesla after Elon Musk admitted during the company’s first-quarter 2026 earnings call that vehicles equipped with the Hardware 3 (HW3) chip would not be able to achieve Unsupervised Full Self-Driving (FSD).
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Gerber had earlier sounded out calls for Tesla to offer refunds to customers who had paid for the technology when making their purchase if the FSD v14.3 did not offer unsupervised autonomy.
Tesla’s Sales Decline In California
The automaker’s sales in California took a hit, as Tesla delivered 31,958 units in the state during the first quarter of the year, over 10,000 units lower than the 42,000 units it delivered during the same period in 2025. However, the Model Y was still the best-selling electric vehicle in the state.
Photo Courtesy: Ken Wolter on Shutterstock.com
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